IHS Markit: annual autonomous vehicle sales to surpass 33M in 2040

Business information provider IHS Markit forecasts that more than 33 million autonomous vehicles will be sold globally in 2040—a substantial increase from the 51,000 units forecast for the first year of significant volume in 2021.

IHS Markit suggests that the rapid convergence of autonomous driving and mobility services such as ride-hailing will be a central driver of early deployment and growth. The forecaster projects that the United States will lead the world in initial deployment and early adoption of production autonomous vehicles as early as 2019, while Europe and China are expected to begin adding considerable volume from 2021 onward.

Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) will first bring this technology to the masses before individual ownership of autonomous vehicles enters the picture.

The first autonomous vehicle volumes—beyond retrofit test vehicles—will arrive in 2019 through driverless mobility services. Volumes will surpass 51,000 units in 2021 when personally owned autonomous cars reach individual buyers for the first time, and IHS Markit forecasts estimate nearly 1 million units will be sold in 2025 across shared fleets and individually owned cars.Dr. Egil Juliussen, director of automotive technology research at IHS Markit

Significant ongoing investment in transportation technology by OEMs, suppliers, mobility service providers and technology companies contributes to earlier deployment timelines, while dedicated mobility service brands within many automakers will contribute to higher volumes of autonomous vehicles in the forecast.